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09-Feb-2016

Agthia 4Q15: Earnings sustain robust growth trend, up 22% Y-o-Y, include impact of Bayan, ahead of forecast

Agthia posted its preliminary figures for 4Q2015 with reported earnings coming in at AED51.8mn, advancing 22% Y-o-Y (-4% sequentially) on continued margin expansion (likely from the water & beverages division) and were 8% ahead of our forecast. Earnings for the year increased 20% Y-o-Y to AED231mn, however, the company consolidated its acquisition of Bayan in 4Q2015 (for four months, acquired in 3Q2015) which we had not incorporated into our forecast (no guidance indicated regarding the value or details of the deal). Excluding the acquisition FY2015 earnings grew a still-robust 18% Y-o-Y. The deal added cAED33mn in revenues and AED3mn in earnings for the consolidated four months.   Revenue for the quarter came in at AED494mn, growing c17% Y-o-Y (+6% Q-o-Q). The company’s agribusiness division showed top line growth of c7% Y-o-Y (56% of total revenue), while the consumer business division grew a stronger 29% Y-o-Y during the quarter (includes impact of acquisition).   We remain buyers of Agthia as we expect sustained earnings growth into 2016, as the company ramps up existing capacities and accommodates further capacity increases in the high-margin water and beverages division. (Company, Nada Amin)  

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