ERC: Surprise-free 2015 financial results; status quo on phase III land
Egyptian Resorts Company (ERC) has released its financial results for 2015. Revenue came in at EGP400.4 million (+2.6% versus EFGe, +seven-fold on 2014). Net income was EGP217.5 million (+11.5% versus EFGe, versus EGP37.5 million in net loss in 2014), marking a strong (yet expected) return to profitability. The growth came from recognised revenue from the sale of land worth USD72 million completed in 2015, the highest level seen since 2007. On a separate note, it announced that the court dismissed the lawsuit filed by Shehata Mohamed Shehata against The Tourism Development Authority (TDA), in favor of the TDA (and the company), on lack of requisite legal standing. We note that the lawsuit filed by ERC against the TDA’s decision to cancel the allocation of phase III of the land is still ongoing, thus the status of phase III is unchanged. We reiterate our view that the stock offers a less attractive investment opportunity compared to its local peers, given that: i) it is a one-project company, with limited land bank; ii) the nature of its business model, as a master-developer, limiting its ability to fully leverage increased demand on secondary homes; and iii) its high-risk-profile, in light of its association with the vulnerable tourism segment. The reversal of the decision to withdraw the phase III land would significantly improve the company’s outlook, even if returned at a higher price. This would multiply ERC’s residual land bank, making the long-term story more compelling and offering higher potential for growth with more room for land sales and development projects. (Company disclosure, Mai Attia, Sara Boutros) Egyptian Resorts: EGP0.90 as of 23 March 2016, Rating: Neutral, FV: EGP0.74 per share, MCap: USD106 million, EGTS EY / EGTS.CA
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